A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
